Publications

Please see below for a publication list, including journal articles, theses, media articles and data sets. You can also visit my Google Scholar profile

Journal Articles

Articles submitted for publication

• Danabasoglu, G. and others: Simulated and Observed Transport Estimates Across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) Section. Submitted to Geoscientific Model Development.

• Richet, O., Holmes, R., Chittleborough, J., Spillman, C. and Smith, G.: What makes a good tide prediction? Application to the Australian coastline, Submitted to Journal of Operational Oceanography.

• Bhagtani, D., Hogg, A., Holmes, R. and Constantinou, N.: Unraveling how winds and surface heat fluxes control the Atlantic Ocean’s meridional heat transport. Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters

2026

• [54] Hobbs, W., Holmes, R. and Kiss, A.: Ocean constraints on winter Antarctic sea ice extent. Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, 131, e2025JC022716.

2025

• [53] McDougall, T., Holmes, R. and Gunn, K.: What sets the stratification in the abyss?. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 55 (11), 2079-2095.

• [52] Conde, I., Zika, J., Holmes, R. and Ramesh, N.: Observed increase in tropical Pacific surface cold-warm contrast is well outside model simulated range. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL116409.

• [51] Holmes, R., Richet, O., Hague, B., Smith, G. and Spillman, C.: Seasonal outlooks for coastal high tide flooding. Natural Hazards.

• [50] Holmes, R., Smith, G. and Spillman, C.: Seasonal sea level forecasts for the Australian coast. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 75, ES24047.

• [49] England, M., Li, Z., Huguenin, M., Kiss, A., Sen Gupta, A. Holmes, R. and Rahmstorf, S.: Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023. Nature, 642, 636-643.

• [48] Bhagtani, D., Hogg, A., Holmes, R., Constantinou, N. and Khatri, H.: Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the subtropical and subpolar gyres.Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 130 (6), e2024JC021997.

2024

• [47] Holmes, R., Renault, L., Maillard, L. and Boucharel, J.: Air-sea coupling feedbacks over Tropical Instability Waves. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 54, 2165-2184. Associated dataset (Zenodo)

• [46] Holmes R. (2024) Deep-sea dye confirms turbulent-mixing theory — with implications for climate. Nature (News and Views, not peer reviewed), 630, 824-825.

• [45] Bennetts, L. et al. Closing the loops on Southern Ocean dynamics: From the circumpolar current to ice shelves and from bottom mixing to surface waves. Review of Geophysics, 62, e2022RG000781.

• [44] Huguenin, M., Holmes R., Spence, P. and England, M. Subsurface warming of the West Antarctic continental shelf linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL104518.

2023

• [43] Yung, C. and Holmes R. On the contribution of transient diabatic processes to ocean heat transport and temperature variability. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 53 (12), 2933-2951. Associated dataset (Zenodo)

• [42] Capotondi et al. Mechanisms of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

• [41] Bhagtani, D., Hogg, A., Holmes R. and Constantinou, N. Surface heating steers planetary-scale ocean circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 53 (10), 2375-2391. Associated dataset (Zenodo)

• [40] Sohail, T., Holmes, R.M. and Zika, J. Watermass co-ordinates isolate the historical climate change signal. Journal of Climate, 36 (9), 3063-3081.

• [39] Pudig, M., Yung, C., Zika, J. and Holmes, R.M. Rectified ocean heat uptake from oscillatory surface forcing. Journal of Climate, 36 (8), 2663-2680.

2022

• [38] Huguenin-Virchaux, M., Holmes, R. M. and England, M.E. Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century. Nature Communications, 13, 4921. Associated dataset (Zenodo)

• [37] Malan, N., Roughan, M., Stanley, G., Holmes, R.M. and Li, J.: Quantifying cross-shelf transport in the East Australian Current System: A budget-based approach. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 52 (10), 2555-2572.

• [36] Mackallah, C. et al. (2022): ACCESS Datasets for CMIP6: Methodology & Idealised Experiments. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. Associated dataset for the ACCESS-OM2-025 ocean model simulation that I led: Holmes, R.M. et. al. (2021) CSIRO-COSIMA ACCESS-OM2-025 model output prepared for CMIP6 OMIP, Earth System Grid Federation.

• [35] Eabry, M., Holmes, R.M. and Sen Gupta, A. The impact of Indonesian Throughflow constrictions on eastern Pacific upwelling and water-mass transformation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127, e2022JC018509. Associated dataset (Zenodo).

• [34] Webb, D., Holmes, R. M., Spence, P. and England, M.: Propagation of barotropic Kelvin waves around Antarctica. Ocean Dynamics, 72 (6), 405-419.

• [33] Holmes, R.M., Groeskamp, S., Stewart, K. and McDougall, T.: Sensitivity of a Coarse-Resolution Global Ocean Model to Spatially Variable Neutral Diffusion. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002914. Youtube video of talk given at the ICSHMO conference (2022) describing study, Associated dataset (Zenodo).

• [32] Whitt, D., Cherian, D., Holmes, R.M., Bachman, S., Lien, R-C. and Large, W.: Simulation and scaling of the vertical heat transport in deep-cycle turbulence throughout the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 52 (5), 981-1014.

• [31] Holmes, R.M., Sohail, T. and Zika, J.: Adiabatic and diabatic signatures of ocean temperature variability. Journal of Climate, 35 (5), 1459-1477. Youtube video of talk given at the Ocean Sciences Meeting (2022) describing study Associated dataset (Zenodo)

2021

• [30] McDougall, T., J., Barker, P.M., Holmes, R.M., Pawlowicz, R., Griffies, S. and Durack, P.: The interpretation of temperature and salinity variables in numerical ocean model output, and the calculation of heat fluxes and heat content. Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 6445-6466. Associated dataset (Zenodo)

• [29] Holmes, R. M., Zika, J.D., Griffies, S.M., Hogg, A. McC., Kiss, A.E. and England, M.H.: The geography of numerical mixing in a suite of global ocean models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13 (7), e2020MS002333. Youtube video of talk given at the European Geophysical Union Conference (2021) describing study Associated dataset (Zenodo)

• [28] Savita, A., Zika, J., Domingues, C., Marsland, S., Evans, G., Dias, F., Holmes, R.M. and Hogg, A.: Super Residual Circulation: a new perspective on ocean vertical heat transport. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51 (8), 2443-2462.

• [27] Webb, D., Spence, P., Holmes, R. M. and England, M.: Planetary-wave induced strengthening of the AMOC forced by poleward intensified Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Journal of Climate, 34 (17), 7073-7090.

• [26] Bladwell, C., Holmes, R. M. and Zika, J.: Internal salt content: a useful framework for understanding the oceanic branch of the water cycle. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51 (7), 2167-2179.

• [25] Sohail, T., Irving, D., Zika, J., Holmes, R. M. and Church, J.: Fifty year trends in global ocean heat content traced to surface heat fluxes in the sub-polar ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e202GLO91439.

• [24] Cherian, D., Whitt, D., Holmes, R. M., Lien, R-C., Bachman, S. and Large, W.: Off-equatorial deep cycle turbulence forced by Tropical Instability Waves in the equatorial Pacific. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51 (5), 1575-1593.

2020

• [23] Holmes, R. M. and McDougall, T. J.: Diapycnal transport near a sloping bottom boundary. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 50 (11), 3253-3266. published manuscript (PDF)

• [22] Assene F., Morel, Y. … Holmes, R.M. et al.: From mixing to the basin scale circulation: How the inverse cascade is involved in the formation of the subsurface currents in the equatorial Atlantic. Fluids, 5 (3), 147.

• [21] Huguenin, M., Holmes, R. M. and England, M.: Diabatic Contributions to Warm Water Volume Variability Over ENSO Events. Journal of Climate, 33 (22), 9945-9964.

• [20] Archer M., Schaeffer A., Keating S., Roughan M., Holmes R. M., Siegelman L.: Observations of submesoscale instability and frontal subduction within the mesoscale eddy field of the Tasman Sea. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 50 (5), 1509-1529.

• [19] Kiss A. E. et al.: ACCESS-OM2 v1.0: A Global Ocean-Sea Ice Model at Three Resolutions. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 401-442.

2019

• [18] Holmes, R. M., Zika, J.D., Ferrari, R., Thompson, A., Newsom, E. and England, M.H.: Atlantic ocean heat transport enabled by Indo-Pacific heat uptake and mixing. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 13939-13949. Climate Extremes Research Brief, accepted manuscript (PDF) Associated dataset (Research Data Australia)

• [17] Holmes R. M., de Lavergne, C. and McDougall, T.J.: Tracer transport within abyssal mixing layers. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 49, 2669–2695. published manuscript (PDF) Climate Extremes Research Brief

• [16] Holmes R. M., Zika, J.D. and England, M.H.: Reply to “Comments on Diathermal heat transport in a global ocean model”. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 49 (8), 2195-2197. published manuscript (PDF)

• [15] Groeskamp S., de Lavergne, C., Holmes R. M., Tamsitt, V., Frenger, I., Chapman, C., Newsom, E. and Stanley, G.: Climate recorded in seawater: A workshop on water-mass transformation analysis for ocean and climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, ES243–ES247. Climate Extremes Newsletter Article

• [14] Holmes R. M., Zika, J.D. and England, M.H.: Diathermal heat transport in a global ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 49 (1), 141-161. published manuscript (PDF) Climate Extremes Research Brief

• [13] Webb, D., Holmes R. M., Spence, P. and England, M.H.: Barotropic Kelvin wave-induced bottom boundary layer warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Geophysical Research, 124 (3), 1595-1615.

• [12] Santoso et al.: Dynamics and Predictability of the El Nino Southern Oscillation: An Australian perspective on progress and challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 403-420

• [11] Holmes R. M., S. McGregor, A. Santoso and M.H. England Contribution of Tropical Instability Waves to ENSO Irregularity, Climate Dynamics, 52, 1837-1855. accepted manuscript (PDF)

2018

• [10] Holmes R. M., C. de Lavergne and T. J. McDougall: Ridges, Seamounts, Troughs and Bowls: Topographic Control of the Dianeutral Circulation in the Abyssal Ocean, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 48, 861–882. published manuscript (PDF)

• [9] Warner, S. J., R. M. Holmes, E. H. McHugh Hawkins, M. Hoecker-Martinez, A. C. Savage and J. N. Moum: Buoyant gravity currents released from tropical instability waves, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 48, 361–382.

2017

• [8] de Lavergne, C., G. Madec, F. Roquet, R. M. Holmes and T. J. McDougall: Abyssal ocean overturning shaped by seafloor distribution, Nature, 551,181–186. (Also see media articles below)

• [7] Spence, P., R. M. Holmes, A. McC. Hogg, S. M. Griffies, K. D. Stewart, and M. H. England:, Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds, Nature Climate Change, 7 (8), 595-603.

2016

• [6] Holmes R. M. and Thomas L. N.: Modulation of Tropical Instability Wave Intensity by Equatorial Kelvin Waves, Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (9), 2623-2643. published manuscript (PDF)

• [5] Holmes R. M., Moum J. N. and Thomas L. N.: Evidence for Seafloor-Intensified Mixing by Surface-Generated Equatorial Waves, Geophysical Research Letters 43 (3), 1202-1210. (Also see media articles below)

2011-2015

• [4] Holmes R. M. and Thomas L. N. (2015): The Modulation of Equatorial Turbulence by Tropical Instability Waves in a Regional Ocean Model, Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (4), 1155–1173. published manuscript (PDF)

• [3] Holmes R. M., Thomas L. N., Thompson L. and Darr D. (2014): Potential Vorticity Dynamics of Tropical Instability Vortices, Journal of Physical Oceanography 44 (3), 995–1011. published manuscript (PDF)

• [2] Holmes R. M. and Williams D. R. M. (2011): Single chain asymmetric block copolymers in poor solvents. Candidates for patchy colloids Macromolecules 44, 6172-6181. accepted manuscript (PDF)

• [1] Holmes R. M. and Williams D. R. M. (2011): Popout transitions in weakly stretched single-chain multi-block copolymers in poor solvents Europhysics 95, 63004. pre-print (PDF)

Data Sets

• Holmes, R.M. et. al. (2021) CSIRO-COSIMA ACCESS-OM2-025 model output prepared for CMIP6 OMIP, Earth System Grid Federation.

• Holmes, R. M., McDougall, T.J., Barker, P.M., Pawlowicz, R., Griffies, S.M. and Durack, P. (2021): The interpretation of temperature and salinity variables in numerical ocean model output and the calculation of heat fluxes and heat content - ACCESS-CM2 data and code. Zenodo [data set + code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5580343

• de Lavergne, C., Madec, G., Roquet, F., Holmes, R. M. and McDougall, T. J. (2017). Neutrally Averaged Radiocarbon Climatology (NCEI Accession 0166518). Version 1.1. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Dataset. [2017-09-13] LINK

Theses

Ph.D. Thesis

Holmes R. M. (2016) Tropical Instability Waves and Mixing in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, Stanford University, Supervisor: Professor Leif Thomas. PDF Link

Honours Thesis

Holmes R. M. (2010) The Morphology of Single Chain Asymmetric Block Copolymers in Poor Solvents, Australian National University, Supervisor: Professor David R. M. Williams. PDF Link

Media Articles / non-peer reviewed

• R. Holmes (2024) Pacific tropical instability waves have intensified since the 1990s, Nature Climate Change, expert opinion in research briefing.

• Chen et al. (2023) Evaluation of the GloSea-GC5 seasonal hindcasts, UM/Momentum Users Newsletter article.

• Huguenin, M., England, M. and Holmes, R. The Southern Ocean absorbs more heat than any other ocean on Earth, and the impacts will be felt for generations, theconversation.com media article, September 2022. Also picked up by many other media companies (e.g. The Guardian).

• Holmes R. M., Making the most of a CLEX postdoc in 2019 - An overview of my trips to North America and France, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes newsletter article, November 2019

• Holmes R. M., Groeskamp S. and de Lavergne, C. Climate Recorded in Seawater: A Workshop on Water-Mass Transformation Analysis for Ocean and Climate Studies ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes newsletter workshop report, August 2019.

• Holmes R.M. How the ocean moves heat ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Research Brief, January 2019

• Answers to the world’s ‘oldest water’ found in the deep blue north Pacific Sydney Morning Herald, 12th November 2017.

• How the “shadow zone” traps the world’s oldest ocean water ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Media Release, November 2017

• Stronger winds heat up West Antarctic Ice Melt ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Media Release, July 2017.

• How Kelvin waves convert East Antarctic winds to West Antarctic ice melt Cosmos, July 2017.

• Intense ocean turbulence discovered near sea floor in equatorial Pacific, Stanford scientists say Stanford University News, February 2016.

• Study Of Deep Turbulence Reveals Ocean Currents Insights Environmental Monitor, April 2016.